Foreigners are chasing U.S. stocks. Historically, that’s a bad sign.

The term “dumb money” refers to retail investors—a corporate euphemistic and often pejorative label. Retail investors are sometimes perceived as arriving late to the investment party, providing exit liquidity for professional traders.

While this narrative isn’t universally true, as seen during the GameStop saga (where a hedge fund collapsed due to retail investors’ actions), professionals generally have the upper hand due to experience and resources.

The Role of Foreign Retail Investors

Foreign retail investors are increasingly becoming significant players in the U.S. stock market, but their timing often raises eyebrows:

• Record Purchases: Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, highlighted that foreign investors bought U.S. equities at a record rate of $76.5 billion over three months.
• Poor Timing History: Historically, foreign investors have shown bad timing, investing heavily before major downturns like:
  • The 1987 stock market crash
  • The dot-com bubble burst in 2000
  • The 2008 global financial crisis

Why Are Foreign Investors Drawn to U.S. Stocks?

The allure of U.S. stocks is fueled by the dominance of corporate giants like Apple, Tesla, and Nvidia. In contrast, many domestic markets worldwide struggle to maintain competitive growth.

• South Korean Investors: U.S. stock ownership by South Koreans jumped 65% last year, motivated by the strength of leading American corporations.
• UK Retail Flows: In November, UK investors moved £590 million into U.S. stock-market funds while withdrawing £552 million from domestic equity funds.

The Davos Consensus and Contrarian Opinions

The World Economic Forum in Davos reflected a growing belief that the U.S. economy is outperforming the European Union. Historian Niall Ferguson observed:

“The new Davos consensus is that Europe can’t get its economic act together, and America is rocking and rolling.”

However, Ferguson warns that the Davos consensus often proves incorrect, urging caution about blindly following the crowd.

Valuation Insights: U.S. vs. Global Markets

A compelling case exists for contrarian investors, especially regarding valuation metrics:

• The iShares MSCI All-Country Index ex U.S. ETF (ACWX) trades at a 13.4x forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio.
• In contrast, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) trades at a much higher 22.1x forward P/E ratio.

Market Highlights and News Updates

U.S. Stock Market Performance

• S&P 500: Hit record highs on Thursday.
• Gold Futures: Hovered around record highs amid increased uncertainty.
• Dollar vs. Yen: The dollar strengthened after the Bank of Japan raised its policy rate to a 17-year high.

Key Movers

• Texas Instruments (TXN): Fell due to weaker-than-expected Q1 profit predictions.
• Twilio (TWLO): Rose 17% after surpassing sales estimates.
• Boeing (BA): Dropped after projecting a $4 billion Q4 loss.

Top 10 Most-Active Stock Tickers

Here are the stocks gaining attention:

1. Nvidia (NVDA)
2. Tesla (TSLA)
3. GameStop (GME)
4. Palantir Technologies (PLTR)
5. Meta Platforms (META)
6. Apple (AAPL)
7. MicroStrategy (MSTR)
8. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM)
9. Amazon.com (AMZN)
10. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)

Conclusion

Retail and foreign investors remain a critical force in the stock market, but timing and strategy are crucial. While U.S. stocks are appealing, high valuations should prompt careful analysis. Whether you’re a retail investor or a seasoned professional, staying informed and avoiding herd mentality can help navigate the markets effectively.